Changing my view to gold

My 1st bet of this year to be short of EURUSD was a loser bet. The situation of Middle East hasn’t eased at all, but USD is not responding as the safe haven as much as I anticipated, or should I say the expectation to rate hike in Euro zone surpassed the fear of European sovereign crisis…at least for now?  Anyways, I think I take a break from being short of EURUSD. But I will come back on this for sure in the future not so long from now. (In the mid to long term, I’m still Euro bearish.)

For a long time, I kept saying the gold’s rally is over for the mid term. It looks now the QE2.0′s effect is dragging dollar, now with rising soft commodity prices and oil price. The combination of the popular uprising from North Africa to Middle East and dilution of USD seem to push the money into stuff like oil, gold and silver. The commodity prices often experience climax spike towards the end of the bull market, and the current price action on oil, gold, and silver may not be the exception.

Along with this possible scenario, I updated my Elliott wave count as follows. The 1st chart is weekly.

The second is the daily chart. I can count the current uptrend as an impulse wave towards .1. If I see a zigzag wave down coming close to 1364. next, I will get ready to buy gold. I’m not sure how high the gold will spike, but going over$1650 may be possible.

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