Recounting the Elliott waves for $gold and $EURUSD. Unchanged for $AUDUSD. Now just waiting for the chance.

I meant to post this one during the weekend, so the chart is taken at the close of Friday. But the situation hasn’t been changed much since then. So using them anyways.

I took loss twice in a row, and certainly it’s not a pleasant thing. But I knew it was not a great chance so I kept my bet small. It’s the discipline.

The gold was stronger than I had speculated in the last trade, and I had to tweak my Elliott wave count.

The move from $1123 look impulsive so far, and my first scenario (labeled without parentheses) assumes this is the beginning of gold to make the new highs. But I have not ruled out the second scenario in which the gold is in fact still in the process of a correction as I labeled with parentheses. As of Monday night, the price seems to be in black 4 wave, and I may attempt to long gold towards black 5.

One point to pay attention from there to see the mid term rally is emerging is whether the current wave go higher than $1170 or the high of April 11. It should be followed by a zigzag correction, but that is the place I would be ready to start long gold for the mid term.

On Monday, Aussie continued to extend rally against Yen. But I am reluctant to long AUD especially against USD because the price went below the established channel although it was brief. It could be a sign that the rally of AUD is about to end as I have been repeating. I think it is time to wait patiently.

Some what major recount to my Elliott wave for EURUSD. I was too excited when EURUSD went above the trend line resistance (not in this chart but here). But I first thought it was beginning of a bigger rebound, but now I think we are still in the part of the purple .I wave which now I think it will go below 1.2800. As in this case, the wave IV (the black IV here) often redefines the trend line, expanding the channel width. It is deceptive because we cannot tell whether the breaking of the older trend is the longer term trend reversal, or the last stage continuation of the existing trend until the market develops further. So it’s not clever to size up our bet in this phase.

For the near term trading strategy, I will wait to see if EURUSD bounces up towards the (new) trend line resistance as in the chart labeled with blue underlined 2. Then I will trade short. But it may take few more days before th e chance to come.   As they always say, “Do not chase the market. Let the market come to you.”

2 comments to Recounting the Elliott waves for $gold and $EURUSD. Unchanged for $AUDUSD. Now just waiting for the chance.

  • Hi, I just stumbled upon this webpage from Bing and just wanted to take a moment to say thanks for the advice that you’ve provided.

  • Hello Theressa. Thank you for visiting my web site. Just in case, this post was written on April 26, and my short term analyses are rather hit or miss with about 60~68% success rate in trade execution. So, please always make sure if I have made a new and corrected posts.

    RationalMove

    * Trading and investing carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for everybody. Before deciding to trade or invest, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, software, tools, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that RationalMove.com is not rendering investment advice.

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