After gained 2.1% last week, I’m very cautious on cross $USD trades.

I lost money on AUDUSD short, but I made much more money on EURUSD short. Net was 2.1% gain. I am very happy with the overall analysis and execution. Nice way to start the new quarter. Besides, I was really lucky that I had decided to exit EURUSD because it had a great bounce back to 1.3500 immediately after. Well, it was not totally luck because I started to sense the price action started to be non-impulsive around 1.3280.

Now looking ahead…but it does not look so tasty.

Due to the great rebound of EURUSD, US dollar index naturally had a sudden fall as I showed with a red arrow here:


And for EURUSD, I demoted what I labled as purple .1 (240~120min cycle) last week to  black 1 (90~60min cycle), and now the end of purple .1 is at 1.3280. This is a minor tweak.  So I am basically maintaining my short term bearish view on EURUSD.

Having said that, I cannot ignore the fact that the sudden price rise on Friday that could potentially become an impulse wave, and it may be overcoming the trend line resistance (gray line). So, I will just observe the market with no position for the beginning of the new week.


I had to recount AUDUSD now that it overcame Jan 14 high. AUDUSD may go higher than the high of Nov 16 2009 (0.9406), but I still think AUDUSD’s about to peak out.


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Current risk exposure:

Rational Move always use stop loss orders, and this is the worse case potential loss over the capital for the currently open positions. This is unrealized loss is less or equal to the risk exposure.

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