Seeing upside on AUDUSD

I entered AUDUSD long position on July 13. Unlike my usual habit, I hadn’t posted an article of the trade planning partly because I was busy outside the trading world, and partly because I had thought it was going to be another week before my entry order triggers.

Now it’s been more than 2 weeks, and AUDUSD is in my favor both for the price action and the swap interest in this longer than usual holding.

This week, Australia’s CPI rose more than the market anticipated, and it slightly increased the expectation to RBA’s interest hike. RBA’s interest decision will be announced on August 2.

Meanwhile, US politics on debt ceiling stagnated, and the added uncertainty on dollar also seems to be positive on AUDUSD.

Here is the weekly chart of AUDUSD with my Elliott wave counts:

The primary scenario is that AUDUSD is in wave b of an expanded flat wave in the very long cycle. If this is the case, what is waiting is a sharp downward c wave that goes even lower than 2008 low. I am not really sure if this will happen (who does?)

The secondary scenario, showed with the label with parentheses, seems more attractive scenario as the long term outlook for USD only gets worse, and the fear for inflation increases.

In either scenarios in this very long term, AUDUSD is at the end of wave V, and I am focusing on much shorter span. Here is the 6 hours chart:

My average entry price is 1.0805. Currently my stop loss is set at 1.0815 (so the profit is guaranteed). I will probably book the profit at 3 or 1.1182, and think to re-enter the market at 4.

EURUSD: covered short with small profit, and now waiting

This is the 2nd post today. For a while, I just wait and watch where EURUSD was heading. When I look back my past few posts on EURUSD, one week I was bullish and next week, I had to change my view. It’s telling EURUSD’s nervous situation. I made a quick call to sell EURUSD today, but I decided that the it is still premature, so I covered with 46 pips profit.

I think EURUSD is trying to complete wave 1 of c as in my previous post. So, I will wait the rebound of 2 before deciding when to sell EURUSD again.

Sold small unit of EURUSD

Capital growth for Q2 was 0.58%. Made up the loss from Q1 by a little, and now YTD is -1.75%.

So far, it looks like b wave finished as triangle wave, and the final impulse wave C of the zigzag .a emerged.

Here is 60min chart:

I sold EURUSD at 1.4058 with stop loss at 1.4380, risking 1.8% of my capital.

Real time trading tweets

The plan in the article may get rejected any time, so please check out my tweets on Twitter.

Current risk exposure:

"","","","","$29,058.30","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","41.95%","","","2.00%","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
Rational Move always use stop loss orders, and this is the worse case potential loss over the capital for the currently open positions. This is unrealized loss is less or equal to the risk exposure.

Capital growth

From recent 100 trades (%) The growth right before the 1st trade is set to 0%.
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Drawdowns

From recent 100 trades (%)
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Total returns

Since inception
(Aug 10, 2009)
Year-to-date Quarter-to-date
0% 0% 0%
This is a normalized value: the return on each trade is normalized against the capital just before the trade execution. This way, it is eliminating the effect by the capital change from deposits and withdrawals. The calculation thus reflects the trading performance of each trade. The value does not contain unrealized profits and losses. RM's trading strategy never risks more than 5% of the present capital. Not including subtraction by tax.

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