EURUSD: Thinking to buy

It looks like EU will apply Vienna Initiative on Greek case, and EURUSD has been stabilized for now. If the market took Greek issue as postponed for a while, then the focus may be the interest rate hike on Euro in July, which is EURUSD positive.

I won the last EURUSD short trade by exiting early. It was a good judgement. I saw a completed impulse wave shape from .B to .C in the chart below. Back then, I thought this was rather 2 to 3 (see the previous post). With this subtle indication and a general thought that it is a summer trading, I decided to be cautious. It worked. But I’m writing this after I closed that trade, so this logic might be after-the-fact thoughts and I may have been just lucky. I don’t give myself a full-credit on what I write after things happen.

Now I changed the view for EURUSD because 1. what I now label .1 is higher than previous .A, and 2. it broke the downward trend-line resistance, and even went higher than .1.

So, the new analysis is that EURUSD has not finished b, and that peak near 1.4700 was sub-wave A (again, compare with the previous post). The new target for b is now 1.4800 level. So, I will wait for 2 around 1.4310 (?), and buy EURUSD when it goes higher than 1.

I will be cautious on this trade again. I won’t make a bit bet, and I will probably exit early.

Getting ready for another short EURUSD

After I lost in the last trade of short EURUSD, I stayed back, and just observing the market for a while. EURUSD surged to 1.47 level, and now mark this peak as the terminal of b wave. I’m currently waiting for 2, and I will carefully execute another attempt to profit by short EURUSD.

Real time trading tweets

The plan in the article may get rejected any time, so please check out my tweets on Twitter.

Current risk exposure:

Rational Move always use stop loss orders, and this is the worse case potential loss over the capital for the currently open positions. This is unrealized loss is less or equal to the risk exposure.

Capital growth

From recent 100 trades (%) The growth right before the 1st trade is set to 0%.
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From recent 100 trades (%)
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Total returns

Since inception
(Aug 10, 2009)
Year-to-date Quarter-to-date
0% 0% 0%
This is a normalized value: the return on each trade is normalized against the capital just before the trade execution. This way, it is eliminating the effect by the capital change from deposits and withdrawals. The calculation thus reflects the trading performance of each trade. The value does not contain unrealized profits and losses. RM's trading strategy never risks more than 5% of the present capital. Not including subtraction by tax.

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June 2011
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