Gold: Now waiting for an opportunity to be short

I made a small profit of 0.42% by being long gold last week. In retrospect, I entered the position a bit too early at $1337 average, and price went down further to $1318 (b). It was good that I held on to the position with the stop loss set at $1314 (I mis-tweeted that it was $1315 but it was typo). The price rebounded, but the uptrend to c does not seem to be an impulse wave so far. So, I got cautious and ended up exiting from the position prematurely. But I should be grateful because I’m trading in a corrective wave to 2 or B.

Now I’m anticipating a downward impulse wave. My current Elliott wave count is valid unless the price breaks $1388 up, so we may see further gain in the price, but the initiation of the downtrend could come  at any time in my count. I will probably wait until I see at least $30 decline, then an upward corrective wave before deciding the entry point of the new short position.

Following up the gold trade

I think I was a bit too early to initiate the long position this time, but I am holding on to it with $1314 stop loss. Now that the blue underlined b is lower than I initially thought (=$1318), the target of this trade is also moved down to $1353.

Gold: A trading opportunity

I believe gold still climbing up the uptrend for the long term, initiated the correction for the mid term.

But for the very short term, I’m observing a potential blue underlined a-b-c zigzag upwards to $1363.55 in XAUUSD 60min chart. The blue underlined b may not have been defined yet, so I’d be careful in jumping into the long position. Blue underlined a is topped at 1349.15, and currently b is assumed to be 1328.53. So, when I see a $8~10 upward spike, I will start defining the entry point and loss cut line:

Here is a few days old, but the daily chart for the bigger picture:

Real time trading tweets

The plan in the article may get rejected any time, so please check out my tweets on Twitter.

Current risk exposure:

Rational Move always use stop loss orders, and this is the worse case potential loss over the capital for the currently open positions. This is unrealized loss is less or equal to the risk exposure.

Capital growth

From recent 100 trades (%) The growth right before the 1st trade is set to 0%.
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From recent 100 trades (%)
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Total returns

Since inception
(Aug 10, 2009)
Year-to-date Quarter-to-date
0% 0% 0%
This is a normalized value: the return on each trade is normalized against the capital just before the trade execution. This way, it is eliminating the effect by the capital change from deposits and withdrawals. The calculation thus reflects the trading performance of each trade. The value does not contain unrealized profits and losses. RM's trading strategy never risks more than 5% of the present capital. Not including subtraction by tax.

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October 2010
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