Buying EURUSD on wave C of the presumed flat wave

I have to admit, that the

To compose myself back again, let’s look back the last 10 trades: 

Date, symbol, long/short, P/L (%)
5/7/2010 AUDJPY short -0.55%
5/7/2010 XAUUSD long 0.56%
5/13/2010 XAUUSD long 0.68%
5/18/2010 AUDUSD short 0.05%
5/20/2010 EURUSD long 1.00%
5/25/2010 XAUUSD long 0.67%
5/25/2010 AUDJPY short 0.16%
5/25/2010 AUDJPY short -0.63%
5/26/2010 XAUUSD long -0.88%
5/27/2010 EURUSD short -0.48%

I think turning point was May 25. I made a decent profit on XAUUSD trade. When I exited from the position not because the price reached to the target level, but because the wave looked weak and I started to anticipate a reversal. This concern turned out to be a false alarm and gold continued to rally over $1214. I was a bit frustrated to miss 50% of the gold’s  rally, and tried to get the last squeeze of the juice after the blue underlined iv wave. I was right and gold rallied, but the rally was short and I was peacefully sleeping during the European session. I missed the top, and eventually was stopped out with 0.88% loss.

The last EURUSD and AUDJPY loss trades were byproducts of the emotional swirl from gold trade. Thanks to Rational Move Risk Control spreadsheet, I kept betting smaller and smaller, so my drawdown has been very manageable. So, I can think about the next move with the calm mind.

EURUSD barely defended 1.2141 line, and the bullish Elliott wave count from the last post is still surviving with a minor tweak. I just bought a half of what I intended to buy, and I will buy when I get more edge. For the actual entry price and stop loss levels, please refer to the new page to show my up-to-date open positions and pending orders.

I created this page as yet another effort to keep my thought process and position crystal clear to reader and to myself. I need to be accountable on each of my trades.

Exiting from AUDJPY short and gold long for now. Watching EURUSD

I just exited from AUDJPY short. AUDJPY’s move from 72.03 to 75.10 looks to be an impulse wave although my Elliott wave count will hold unless the cross currency goes higher than 76.83 level. My thinking at the point was:

(a) I had already moved my stop loss to 75.89, and it’s against my rule to move stop loss to the direction that would increase the potential loss
(b) The impulse move implies the price has least resistance in going up at least for the time being
(c) For the reason of (b), I should be able to capture an opportunity to re-enter short AUDJPY position. No need to hurry.

I also exited from short term gold long position. Although the price level is going higher, the metal is rather getting many obstacles in crawling up for now. In other words, I cannot count an impulse wave from the current move up. So, I am careful.

Instead, I am thinking to long EURUSD with this C wave of a flat wave idea:

As always, I will wait for a pull back, and set a stop order to enter the market once the risk is defined.

Speaking about Euro, this news is something bothering:
Germany Proposes Naked Short Selling Ban of All German Stocks

Getting ready to sell more $AUDJPY, and short term long trade gold

Just a quick update.

It seems AUDJPY’s 4th wave is ending, and probably I will set sell order at tomorrow morning in New York session. (After Purple .2)

Gold is gradually gaining strength at least for the short term. I set stop buy entry at $1194.5. Stop loss at $1184.

Real time trading tweets

The plan in the article may get rejected any time, so please check out my tweets on Twitter.

Current risk exposure:

Rational Move always use stop loss orders, and this is the worse case potential loss over the capital for the currently open positions. This is unrealized loss is less or equal to the risk exposure.

Capital growth

From recent 100 trades (%) The growth right before the 1st trade is set to 0%.
About this graph


From recent 100 trades (%)
About this graph

Total returns

Since inception
(Aug 10, 2009)
Year-to-date Quarter-to-date
0% 0% 0%
This is a normalized value: the return on each trade is normalized against the capital just before the trade execution. This way, it is eliminating the effect by the capital change from deposits and withdrawals. The calculation thus reflects the trading performance of each trade. The value does not contain unrealized profits and losses. RM's trading strategy never risks more than 5% of the present capital. Not including subtraction by tax.

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May 2010
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