Elliott wave analysis of the week - December 18, 2009

“The big money is made by sitting, not thinking. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.” – Jesse Livermore

December 17 was my birthday, and I successfully “sat tight” from the night before, and won big. It was not only a profitable trading, but gave me a good lesson, and I did not have to pay the tuition.

I am done trading for the year, and the current trading method, started on August 10 of this year, made the fund grow by over 23% in 4 months. This number is the fund growth, and I am actually using further leverage. So, I made over 85% return in 4 months.

Now the expectation of earlier-than-thought FED’s rate hike is rising, and the dollar’s rebound is only getting clearer. The correction (Dollar index negative) is due any moment from here. After the correction, the dollar won’t be just rebounding but rising.

Euro is really smashed this week, but I’m anticipating further decline towards the low of September 1, 2009.

And here is what I anticipate on Aussie.

Real time trading tweets

The plan in the article may get rejected any time, so please check out my tweets on Twitter.

Current risk exposure:

Rational Move always use stop loss orders, and this is the worse case potential loss over the capital for the currently open positions. This is unrealized loss is less or equal to the risk exposure.

Capital growth

From recent 100 trades (%) The growth right before the 1st trade is set to 0%.
About this graph


From recent 100 trades (%)
About this graph

Total returns

Since inception
(Aug 10, 2009)
Year-to-date Quarter-to-date
0% 0% 0%
This is a normalized value: the return on each trade is normalized against the capital just before the trade execution. This way, it is eliminating the effect by the capital change from deposits and withdrawals. The calculation thus reflects the trading performance of each trade. The value does not contain unrealized profits and losses. RM's trading strategy never risks more than 5% of the present capital. Not including subtraction by tax.

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December 2009
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