$AUDUSD Horizontal triangle: continuation of the bull scenario

Update: This scenario has already been rejected. I am operating on the first scenario.

I had this count in the back of my head, and now it’s time to realize it…


I have been very bullish USD dollar, short term bearish on gold, and mid term bearish on oil. So, it was natural to play short AUDUSD along with the bearish Elliott wave count.  I was trading EURUSD and AUDUSD back to back, and often noticed Aussie’s fall was not as dramatic as Euro. So, I cannot rule out, and even prefer this horizontal triangle count that leads to yet another rally in AUDUSD. We should have at least one more down from purple label .D to .E with the distance of 180pips or so, so I am going to sell one more time after AUDUSD trades around 0.9260. If what is supposed to be purple .E wave in this count will turn out to be mighty downtrend beyond 0.8900, I will reject this bullish count and go back to my original bearish count.

And of course, if 0.9050 breaks before completing this horizontal triangles, I will be back to bearish AUDUSD.

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The plan in the article may get rejected any time, so please check out my tweets on Twitter.

Current risk exposure:

Rational Move always use stop loss orders, and this is the worse case potential loss over the capital for the currently open positions. This is unrealized loss is less or equal to the risk exposure.

Capital growth

From recent 100 trades (%) The growth right before the 1st trade is set to 0%.
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From recent 100 trades (%)
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Total returns

Since inception
(Aug 10, 2009)
Year-to-date Quarter-to-date
0% 0% 0%
This is a normalized value: the return on each trade is normalized against the capital just before the trade execution. This way, it is eliminating the effect by the capital change from deposits and withdrawals. The calculation thus reflects the trading performance of each trade. The value does not contain unrealized profits and losses. RM's trading strategy never risks more than 5% of the present capital. Not including subtraction by tax.

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