$EURUSD My speculation: could see some big bounce back before the real crash.

EURUSD My current speculation...

Compared to AUDUSD, EURUSD already is showing a big decline from top, and the purple .3 wave was an explosive. I am watching if the low of purple .1 (around 1.4825) will be overcome in the current .4 wave. If that happens, we have to call the current wave as leading diagonal, which is a shy baby wave just signaling the future explosive wave. But, because of this shyness, it may be pushed back rather big towards 1.4950 before the real explosion later. So, I am just closely watching how the wave emerges with having no position for now.

$AUDUSD I recounted the wave. Wait until tomorrow monrning to decide when to sell again.

AUDUSD My current speculation...

I had to downgrade previously blue underlined i, ii, iii, iv, and v to purple .i, .ii, .iii, .iv, and .v because this wave did not go lower than black 1: Elliott Wave’s guideline says that the 3rd wave is most likely the longest and extended wave. The downhill ended short and the shape of the wave was somewhat with a hesitation and shy. I think it takes more for people to be convinced that the dollar was bottomed out, and AUDUSD was due some rebound. AUDUSD should be in zigzag blue ii wave towards 0.92, and the next wave should be stronger break down than blue i wave for this wave count to be true. I will wait until tomorrow morning (Dec 10 of EST) to decide when to enter short again. Probably, I will sell at a clear break down of the trend line of the current blue underlined .ii.

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Current risk exposure:

Rational Move always use stop loss orders, and this is the worse case potential loss over the capital for the currently open positions. This is unrealized loss is less or equal to the risk exposure.

Capital growth

From recent 100 trades (%) The growth right before the 1st trade is set to 0%.
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From recent 100 trades (%)
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Total returns

Since inception
(Aug 10, 2009)
Year-to-date Quarter-to-date
0% 0% 0%
This is a normalized value: the return on each trade is normalized against the capital just before the trade execution. This way, it is eliminating the effect by the capital change from deposits and withdrawals. The calculation thus reflects the trading performance of each trade. The value does not contain unrealized profits and losses. RM's trading strategy never risks more than 5% of the present capital. Not including subtraction by tax.

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December 2009
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