Archive for the ‘Long term’ Category

Year-end report: 3.1% gain

This year, I am thankful that I finished with a +3.09% capital gain. It is much smaller than 2009 and 2010, and I only traded 10 times in a year. By now, I know very well about my trading style and cycle. I don’t day-trade. I don’t hold too long to the carry-trade. I only take the position when I anticipate to book the profit (or at least know where the result is heading) within a week or so. This year’s market overall especially in the major cross-currencies (*) was not giving me much opportunities. But it’s OK to me because I am not a full-time trader, and I am not convinced to change my style until the risk for such change, including the effect to my personal life style, can be measured somehow. But again, I did not lose money by rushing to take position. That is what matters a lot.

Looking at weekly chart of EURUSD, I decided to anticipate EURUSD to go as low as 1.2450 after updating the Elliott Wave labels as in this chart:

Another currency pair I like to trade is AUDUSD but this year was dreadful side way move. But I remain mid-term bullish towards 1.135. The reason I used 1.382 Fibonacci of the amount of 2008 crash is that I am assuming the rally since 2008 bottom is Wave b of a expanded flat wave. That means after marking 1.135 or so, AUDUSD will crash..even lower than 2008 bottom. That sounds crazy. I know it and I am just saying this is one possibility. The other scenario I wrote sometime this year is that the AUDUSD had a real bottom in 2008, and it just rallies towards 2.00 or more from here. That sounds equally crazy. So, I don’t really know the long term, but for the mid-term, I’d rather be long of AUDUSD when I see a sign of upward impulse wave formation:

Thanks for reading my blog, and hopefully next year will be the busier one in terms of trading and posting. I wish all of you a good luck in 2012!

* I stopped trading metals after the regulation horizon got unclear for non-institutional traders.

EURUSD to 1.4750 in near term?

In the midst of the news of S&P’s downgrade on USA and ECB’s signal on massive purchase of Italy and Spain’s debt, here is what I think of EURUSD.

Here is the weekly chart with my Elliott wave counts:

Here is the daily chart:

Here is the 6 hours chart:

In near term, I may trade long EURUSD towards 1.4750.

AUDUSD failed to make a new high

Last week, I was betting on the chance AUDUSD would make another rally, but it turned out to be a miserable nosedive. So, I closed AUDUSD long position that I held for 3 weeks. It was +0.95% plus swap interest gain. I do not account interest gain into the capital growth since they are usually less than 0.1% fluctuations of the entire capital even when I hold position this long.

I modified my Elliott wave count a little to reflect this potential finale of the AUDUSD rally. Here is the weekly chart:

Again in this long term, it could be the end of b that is followed by c that makes even lower than 2008 bottom. But when I short AUDUSD, I should rather look at the secondary scenario, labeled with parenthases, that is more conservative downward estimate: (.II).

Here is the daily chart, assuming Wave V was ending diagonal:

I will be prepared to bet small capital to be short AUDUSD when I see the rebound 2 around1.065 level.

Real time trading tweets

The plan in the article may get rejected any time, so please check out my tweets on Twitter.

Current risk exposure:

Rational Move always use stop loss orders, and this is the worse case potential loss over the capital for the currently open positions. This is unrealized loss is less or equal to the risk exposure.

Capital growth

From recent 100 trades (%) The growth right before the 1st trade is set to 0%.
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From recent 100 trades (%)
About this graph

Total returns

Since inception
(Aug 10, 2009)
Year-to-date Quarter-to-date
0% 0% 0%
This is a normalized value: the return on each trade is normalized against the capital just before the trade execution. This way, it is eliminating the effect by the capital change from deposits and withdrawals. The calculation thus reflects the trading performance of each trade. The value does not contain unrealized profits and losses. RM's trading strategy never risks more than 5% of the present capital. Not including subtraction by tax.

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