Archive for the ‘Wave 5’ Category

Giving one more shot for short AUDUSD

Update (8am, June 28) This plan has been canceled before execution

To summarize the last AUDUSD trade, it was a great entry point and total miss of the exit point, ended as a break-even trade.

Seeing that 1.02267 resistance (.1) is intact, I am thinking to give one more shot of being short AUDUSD. The descent from 1.02244 (.4) to 0.9965 you can see in hourly chart can clearly be counted as an impulse. So, I will sell some AUDUSD when 0.9965 breaks down.

AUDUSD failed to make a new high

Last week, I was betting on the chance AUDUSD would make another rally, but it turned out to be a miserable nosedive. So, I closed AUDUSD long position that I held for 3 weeks. It was +0.95% plus swap interest gain. I do not account interest gain into the capital growth since they are usually less than 0.1% fluctuations of the entire capital even when I hold position this long.

I modified my Elliott wave count a little to reflect this potential finale of the AUDUSD rally. Here is the weekly chart:

Again in this long term, it could be the end of b that is followed by c that makes even lower than 2008 bottom. But when I short AUDUSD, I should rather look at the secondary scenario, labeled with parenthases, that is more conservative downward estimate: (.II).

Here is the daily chart, assuming Wave V was ending diagonal:

I will be prepared to bet small capital to be short AUDUSD when I see the rebound 2 around1.065 level.

EURUSD: Following up on the initial descent

The drop of Euro against USD is not much of a news anymore. It may go further down towards the high of August 6 as in the chart below, but I wouldn’t jump in the short position from here as the wave may be forming a ending diagonal. I will think about it after I confirm 2.

Real time trading tweets

The plan in the article may get rejected any time, so please check out my tweets on Twitter.

Current risk exposure:

"","","","","$29,058.30","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","41.95%","","","2.00%","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
Rational Move always use stop loss orders, and this is the worse case potential loss over the capital for the currently open positions. This is unrealized loss is less or equal to the risk exposure.

Capital growth

From recent 100 trades (%) The growth right before the 1st trade is set to 0%.
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Drawdowns

From recent 100 trades (%)
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Total returns

Since inception
(Aug 10, 2009)
Year-to-date Quarter-to-date
0% 0% 0%
This is a normalized value: the return on each trade is normalized against the capital just before the trade execution. This way, it is eliminating the effect by the capital change from deposits and withdrawals. The calculation thus reflects the trading performance of each trade. The value does not contain unrealized profits and losses. RM's trading strategy never risks more than 5% of the present capital. Not including subtraction by tax.

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