Archive for the ‘Leading diagonal wave’ Category

AUDUSD: leading diagonal?

I did not close position in March and there were no other trade. So Q1 was flat.

I initiated the AUDUSD short position on March 29 along with my mid term view explained in the previous post.

It’s been 10 days, and I closed all with 0.95% gain. I had expected AUDUSD to accelerate the downfall but what we actually saw was a non-impulsive move:

I’d like to think .1 a leading diagonal wave. If I am correct, I will have a .2 correction before speeding the downfall to .3.

Dollar’s correction phase nears?

I traded short AUDUSD and EURUSD. I lost on EURUSD, but I weighed much more on AUDUSD that was win, so I made a small profit (0.38%). I have to reflect on the bad $AUDUSD selling operation today though. If I kept the pos from 0.9110, I could have made 3.75% return.

Now I think it’s time to stop trading for a moment and think about the mid term outlook.

Dollar index. I can clearly count 5 wave structure of an impulse wave from the bottom. Dollar may extend another few days or even a week, but I am expecting a correction towards purple .II from here. The distance purple .I traveled was much farther than I had anticipated. This may mean that the dollar will appreciate so dear in the mid to long term despite the US budget deficit fear?

20100326-dx-daily

EURUSD 12 hours chart. It may go further down around 1.2800? Or 1.3265 (blue underlined 1) was acutally the end of black V and purple .I and EURUSD will be entering the corrective wave up?

20100326-eurusd-720

EURUSD 60min chart. I can clearly count 5 waves down to 1.3265. If it is the blue underlined 1, we should see purple A-B-C upwards to blue underlined 2. If an impulse wave will appear instead, I would expect a greater rebound of EURUSD towards 1.4000 (or even higher) in coming months!

20100326-eurusd-60min

Gold. My last trade (a couple weeks ago) was a loss. Gold is not quite ready to be launched yet. We may see rebound to $1145 in next weeks, but should be quiet over all.

20100326-xauusd-daily

Lastly, AUDUSD. In the mid term, I am still not sure if 0.94 in Nov ’09 was the peak of blue underlined b. I put the secondary scenario with parentheses in this weekly chart.
20100326-audusd-weekly

For now, I trade carefully with the first scenario.

Now the whole move down from 0.9250 looks like a leading diagonal. If my count is correct, we should see a very short rebound to 0.9175 before going down to 0.8950. The process most likely non-impulsive. So, it will be difficult to keep one’s faith in the position whether it’s long or short.

20100326-audusd-120min

$EURUSD Took -1.46% loss now seeing two potential scenarios.

My long position from the last week ended with loss of 1.46%. It’s not terrible, but maybe I should have passed that trade.

Now I can see two potential scenarios. The main scenario expects the current choppy market is in the process of completing the leading diagonal. The secondary scenario (shown with parentheses) is expecting flat wave.

If it leads to the first scenario (i.e. the price reaches to Feb 9 high level), it should be followed by a-b-c correction downwards. I would try short EURUSD at C wave of this correction.

If it turns out to be the second scenario, I would consider buying EURUSD along the blue underlined (C).

Either way, it would take a few days to develop. So I am just watching for now.

20100315-eurusd-180min

Real time trading tweets

The plan in the article may get rejected any time, so please check out my tweets on Twitter.

Current risk exposure:

"","","","","$29,058.30","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","41.95%","","","2.00%","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
Rational Move always use stop loss orders, and this is the worse case potential loss over the capital for the currently open positions. This is unrealized loss is less or equal to the risk exposure.

Capital growth

From recent 100 trades (%) The growth right before the 1st trade is set to 0%.
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Drawdowns

From recent 100 trades (%)
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Total returns

Since inception
(Aug 10, 2009)
Year-to-date Quarter-to-date
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This is a normalized value: the return on each trade is normalized against the capital just before the trade execution. This way, it is eliminating the effect by the capital change from deposits and withdrawals. The calculation thus reflects the trading performance of each trade. The value does not contain unrealized profits and losses. RM's trading strategy never risks more than 5% of the present capital. Not including subtraction by tax.

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