Archive for the ‘Wave 1’ Category

AUDUSD: leading diagonal?

I did not close position in March and there were no other trade. So Q1 was flat.

I initiated the AUDUSD short position on March 29 along with my mid term view explained in the previous post.

It’s been 10 days, and I closed all with 0.95% gain. I had expected AUDUSD to accelerate the downfall but what we actually saw was a non-impulsive move:

I’d like to think .1 a leading diagonal wave. If I am correct, I will have a .2 correction before speeding the downfall to .3.

EURUSD: covered short with small profit, and now waiting

This is the 2nd post today. For a while, I just wait and watch where EURUSD was heading. When I look back my past few posts on EURUSD, one week I was bullish and next week, I had to change my view. It’s telling EURUSD’s nervous situation. I made a quick call to sell EURUSD today, but I decided that the it is still premature, so I covered with 46 pips profit.

I think EURUSD is trying to complete wave 1 of c as in my previous post. So, I will wait the rebound of 2 before deciding when to sell EURUSD again.

Changing my view to gold

My 1st bet of this year to be short of EURUSD was a loser bet. The situation of Middle East hasn’t eased at all, but USD is not responding as the safe haven as much as I anticipated, or should I say the expectation to rate hike in Euro zone surpassed the fear of European sovereign crisis…at least for now?  Anyways, I think I take a break from being short of EURUSD. But I will come back on this for sure in the future not so long from now. (In the mid to long term, I’m still Euro bearish.)

For a long time, I kept saying the gold’s rally is over for the mid term. It looks now the QE2.0′s effect is dragging dollar, now with rising soft commodity prices and oil price. The combination of the popular uprising from North Africa to Middle East and dilution of USD seem to push the money into stuff like oil, gold and silver. The commodity prices often experience climax spike towards the end of the bull market, and the current price action on oil, gold, and silver may not be the exception.

Along with this possible scenario, I updated my Elliott wave count as follows. The 1st chart is weekly.

The second is the daily chart. I can count the current uptrend as an impulse wave towards .1. If I see a zigzag wave down coming close to 1364. next, I will get ready to buy gold. I’m not sure how high the gold will spike, but going over$1650 may be possible.

Real time trading tweets

The plan in the article may get rejected any time, so please check out my tweets on Twitter.

Current risk exposure:

Rational Move always use stop loss orders, and this is the worse case potential loss over the capital for the currently open positions. This is unrealized loss is less or equal to the risk exposure.

Capital growth

From recent 100 trades (%) The growth right before the 1st trade is set to 0%.
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From recent 100 trades (%)
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Total returns

Since inception
(Aug 10, 2009)
Year-to-date Quarter-to-date
0% 0% 0%
This is a normalized value: the return on each trade is normalized against the capital just before the trade execution. This way, it is eliminating the effect by the capital change from deposits and withdrawals. The calculation thus reflects the trading performance of each trade. The value does not contain unrealized profits and losses. RM's trading strategy never risks more than 5% of the present capital. Not including subtraction by tax.

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