Archive for the ‘Wave 2’ Category

AUDUSD: I will sell if 1.0222 breaks down

I think it was a good decision to close AUDUSD short position. Soon after I closed the position, it bottomed, and now I see a clear rebound of .2 wave on the daily chart:

On 3 hours chart, I can see C wave now is about the length of A within .2 wave. .2 may be ending soon if my view that AUDUSD is still in IV wave is correct.

I will sell AUDUSD if 1.0222 breaks down.

EURUSD: Keeping the short position

As EURUSD comes close to my stop loss line 1.3750, I do not hide the fact I don’t enjoy when my position is being threatened. I’m uncomfortable, but I’m not scared because my betting size is well managed. If I was scared now, that would mean my position was too big. If the position is too big, I get scared, and I would not be able to operate on the set rules.

Wave .2, though it is coming really close, but does not have the characteristics of an upward impulse wave. So, I will keep my current assumption that EURUSD is in Wave .2, and it will follow a big drop without going higher than 2. No body can beat the market, and I could be dead wrong here as in the every bet I put. If I am to be proven wrong, I would just move on and re-analyze the market, and place another bet when the right time comes. The last thing I would do is to break the rules of keeping and throwing the position.

That all said, I’m optimistic.

EURUSD: Zooming up the chart and moved the position increase order

Update (December 9, 2010): This Elliott wave count has been rejected

First of all, I have to correct (again!) my Elliott wave labeling. The black 1, 2… I was re-labeling was actually I, II, … all that matters is that the waves of this cycle is the legs that can be observed in daily chart and labeling convention is not essential.

From the daily cycle, the labels of the shorter cycles goes like 1, .1, 1 as in the 60min chart below. (Just recall, I was looking at 360min chart in the previous post. Now to somewhat finer operation cautiously.)

My current plan is to increase the short position at 1.3234 or the break down of 1.  I may take a partial profit at .1, and wait for .2 to appear and sell more on the break down of .1.  That is the ideal scenario.

Real time trading tweets

The plan in the article may get rejected any time, so please check out my tweets on Twitter.

Current risk exposure:

"","","","","$29,058.30","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","41.95%","","","2.00%","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
Rational Move always use stop loss orders, and this is the worse case potential loss over the capital for the currently open positions. This is unrealized loss is less or equal to the risk exposure.

Capital growth

From recent 100 trades (%) The growth right before the 1st trade is set to 0%.
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Drawdowns

From recent 100 trades (%)
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Total returns

Since inception
(Aug 10, 2009)
Year-to-date Quarter-to-date
0% 0% 0%
This is a normalized value: the return on each trade is normalized against the capital just before the trade execution. This way, it is eliminating the effect by the capital change from deposits and withdrawals. The calculation thus reflects the trading performance of each trade. The value does not contain unrealized profits and losses. RM's trading strategy never risks more than 5% of the present capital. Not including subtraction by tax.

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