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Recounting the Elliott waves for $gold and $EURUSD. Unchanged for $AUDUSD. Now just waiting for the chance.

I meant to post this one during the weekend, so the chart is taken at the close of Friday. But the situation hasn’t been changed much since then. So using them anyways.

I took loss twice in a row, and certainly it’s not a pleasant thing. But I knew it was not a great chance so I kept my bet small. It’s the discipline.

The gold was stronger than I had speculated in the last trade, and I had to tweak my Elliott wave count.

The move from $1123 look impulsive so far, and my first scenario (labeled without parentheses) assumes this is the beginning of gold to make the new highs. But I have not ruled out the second scenario in which the gold is in fact still in the process of a correction as I labeled with parentheses. As of Monday night, the price seems to be in black 4 wave, and I may attempt to long gold towards black 5.

One point to pay attention from there to see the mid term rally is emerging is whether the current wave go higher than $1170 or the high of April 11. It should be followed by a zigzag correction, but that is the place I would be ready to start long gold for the mid term.

On Monday, Aussie continued to extend rally against Yen. But I am reluctant to long AUD especially against USD because the price went below the established channel although it was brief. It could be a sign that the rally of AUD is about to end as I have been repeating. I think it is time to wait patiently.

Some what major recount to my Elliott wave for EURUSD. I was too excited when EURUSD went above the trend line resistance (not in this chart but here). But I first thought it was beginning of a bigger rebound, but now I think we are still in the part of the purple .I wave which now I think it will go below 1.2800. As in this case, the wave IV (the black IV here) often redefines the trend line, expanding the channel width. It is deceptive because we cannot tell whether the breaking of the older trend is the longer term trend reversal, or the last stage continuation of the existing trend until the market develops further. So it’s not clever to size up our bet in this phase.

For the near term trading strategy, I will wait to see if EURUSD bounces up towards the (new) trend line resistance as in the chart labeled with blue underlined 2. Then I will trade short. But it may take few more days before th e chance to come.   As they always say, “Do not chase the market. Let the market come to you.”

About my blue and red graphs. It's all about risk control and discipline.

Capital growth

Capital growth

Drawdowns

Drawdowns

Yesterday, I added my new graph to show the drawdowns from the recent 100 trades. I call it red graph, pairing with my blue graph that shows the capital growth. You can find those graphs in the second column under “Current risk exposure” indicator.

Both of the graphs are very important for me to sustain the growth and avoid bankruptcy. In the blue graph, you see the cycle of rapid growth period and stagnation period. At least with my current trading method, having stagnation period is inevitable because the market simply does not allow me to make easy money. What is worse than losing money is not knowing that I am in stagnation period and keep betting regular size rather than smaller ones or even stop trading. With the blue graph, I am reminded visually as soon as the market condition worsens. I would bet smaller and smaller and finally stop trading until the condition improves.

The red graph is about controlling myself and avoid taking more risk than I can. When drawdown is 0%, it means I am making new record of my capital growth (remember, the x axis is the number of trades, so if no trade, no new data to be added.) I cut loss as soon as I get the first evidence of the market moving against my prediction. No body can be right 100% in the market and temporary drawdown is inevitable even for a successful speculator. The most important think is keep the drawdown rate under control, and avoid gambler’s ruin. When the red graph starts to show a drawdown of some degree, I am immediately reminded that I should take a breath to see if I am emotionally compromised (a little Star Trek here).  Then I force myself to bet smaller and less frequently until I will have a new convincing breakthrough trade.

The blue graph tells me if my strategy is fitting to the current market condition, and the red graph tells me if I am disciplined. I think they are very powerful tool.

Just to touch on the techy part, I am using Google Chart Tools. I love this. You need a little skill to code it especially when you want to automatically feed the data to chart, say from Google Spreadsheet. Fortunately I code much more complicated stuff in my day job, and I don’t have much trouble using it. There are people who develops easier to use graphical user interface for this chart tool. Here is one example. Though I leave the instruction on how to use these handy tools to other web sites and books, I may provide a tool that would work with Rational Move risk control spreadsheet when I get a time and energy to implement it.

$EURUSD Wiped by a truncation yesterday. But loss was small.

Yesterday, I lost in trade, but the bet was small, so was the loss: 0.56%. Nothing to worry about.

Here is my current Elliott wave count. I think what got me was the irregular truncation.

20100416-eurusd-180min

I am waiting for blue underlined B to be marked before trying to short on blue underlined C wave.

Real time trading tweets

The plan in the article may get rejected any time, so please check out my tweets on Twitter.

Current risk exposure:

"","","","","$29,058.30","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","41.95%","","","2.00%","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
Rational Move always use stop loss orders, and this is the worse case potential loss over the capital for the currently open positions. This is unrealized loss is less or equal to the risk exposure.

Capital growth

From recent 100 trades (%) The growth right before the 1st trade is set to 0%.
About this graph

Drawdowns

From recent 100 trades (%)
About this graph

Total returns

Since inception
(Aug 10, 2009)
Year-to-date Quarter-to-date
0% 0% 0%
This is a normalized value: the return on each trade is normalized against the capital just before the trade execution. This way, it is eliminating the effect by the capital change from deposits and withdrawals. The calculation thus reflects the trading performance of each trade. The value does not contain unrealized profits and losses. RM's trading strategy never risks more than 5% of the present capital. Not including subtraction by tax.

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